Nigerian Kabuki

As anyone who has been following the Nigerian delta situation knows, it proceeds according to the following pattern:

1. Rebels kidnap somebody or otherwise disrupt things;
   
2. Nigerian government counterattacks;
   
3. A ceasefire is declared;
   
4. The rebels call the ceasefire off;
   
5. Repeat the above.
   

So the following headline is pretty routine:

Nigerian militants vow to resume attacks next week - washingtonpost.com

But enquiring minds would like to know what is really going on.